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Abstract Unfolding is an ill-posed inverse problem in particle physics aiming to infer a true particle-level spectrum from smeared detector-level data. For computational and practical reasons, these spaces are typically discretized using histograms, and the smearing is modeled through a response matrix corresponding to a discretized smearing kernel of the particle detector. This response matrix depends on the unknown shape of the true spectrum, leading to a fundamental systematic uncertainty in the unfolding problem. To handle the ill-posed nature of the problem, common approaches regularize the problem either directly via methods such as Tikhonov regularization, or implicitly by using wide-bins in the true space that match the resolution of the detector. Unfortunately, both of these methods lead to a non-trivial bias in the unfolded estimator, thereby hampering frequentist coverage guarantees for confidence intervals constructed from these methods. We propose two new approaches to addressing the bias in the wide-bin setting through methods called One-at-a-time Strict Bounds (OSB) and Prior-Optimized (PO) intervals. The OSB intervals are a bin-wise modification of an existing guaranteed-coverage procedure, while the PO intervals are based on a decision-theoretic view of the problem. Importantly, both approaches provide well-calibrated frequentist confidence intervals even in constrained and rank-deficient settings. These methods are built upon a more general answer to the wide-bin bias problem, involving unfolding with fine bins first, followed by constructing confidence intervals for linear functionals of the fine-bin counts. We test and compare these methods to other available methodologies in a wide-bin deconvolution example and a realistic particle physics simulation of unfolding a steeply falling particle spectrum. 

Current understanding of the dynamic and slow flow paths that support streamflow in mountain headwater catchments is inhibited by the lack of long-term hydrogeochemical data and the frequent use of short residence time age tracers. To address this, the current study combined the traditional mean transit time and the state-of-the-art fraction of young water ( F yw ) metrics with stable water isotopes and tritium tracers to characterize the dynamic and slow flow paths at Marshall Gulch, a sub-humid headwater catchment in the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA. The results show that F yw varied significantly with period when using sinusoidal curve fitting methods (e.g., iteratively re-weighted least squares or IRLS), but not when using the transit time distribution (TTD)-based method. Therefore, F yw estimates from TTD-based methods may be particularly useful for intercomparison of dynamic flow behavior between catchments. However, the utility of 3 H to determine F yw in deeper groundwater was limited due to both data quality and inconsistent seasonal cyclicity of the precipitation 3 H time series data. Although a Gamma-type TTD was appropriate to characterize deep groundwater, there were large uncertainties in the estimated Gamma TTD shape parameter arising from the short record length of 3 H in deep groundwater. This work demonstrates how co-application of multiple metrics and tracers can yield a more complete understanding of the dynamic and slow flow paths and observable deep groundwater storage volumes that contribute to streamflow in mountain headwater catchments.